Why aren’t more girls choosing careers in science and engineering?

Why aren’t more girls choosing careers in science and engineering?

It’s no secret that women are under-represented in the offices of most tech companies and laboratories today. Although more women than men complete tertiary education across high-income countries, they account for just 25 percent of graduates in information and communications technology, and 24 percent in engineering. Less clear, however, are the reasons behind this gender gap.

Some studies have pointed to discrimination or the absence of affordable childcare, while others have highlighted the importance of professional networks and personal preferences. Now, new research has shed light on another factor that may be at work: girls’ confidence in science, and their relative strength in other subjects.

The latest issue of PISA in Focus takes a closer look at this research, which was published last year by Gijsbert Stoet and David Geary. Their paper analyses PISA 2015 data to explore the nature of the gender gap in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) fields. Girls outperformed boys in science in 19 of the 67 countries and economies that participated in PISA, the paper notes, while boys outperformed girls in 22. (Gender differences were not statistically significant in the remaining 26 countries.)

The authors then analysed gender gaps by looking at each student’s “relative performance” (or “strength”) across the three subjects: reading, mathematics and science.  In nearly all countries, they found that boys scored higher in science and mathematics compared to their average across all subjects, while girls scored higher in reading. These differences could explain why boys are more likely to choose careers in STEM fields, even though both girls and boys perform at similar levels: students may choose their field of study based on their comparative strengths, rather than on their absolute strengths. Girls may be as competent in science as boys, but they are likely to be even better in reading.

Students’ career choices may be influenced by their understanding of their relative academic strengths, as well as their confidence and interest in science.

The findings also show that in 2015, boys’ self-efficacy in science (a measure of confidence when dealing with science topics) was higher than girls’ in 39 out of the 67 countries and economies. Similarly, boys expressed a stronger interest in general science-related topics in 51 countries and economies. These cross-gender differences in relative academic strength, self-efficacy, and interest in science account for a large proportion of the deficit in women’s STEM graduation rates.

The authors used different PISA-based criteria to calculate the share of girls whom one could expect to complete a university STEM degree. Among all students, the share of  girls who attained PISA proficiency Level 4 in all three domains (49%)  was far higher than the share of women who graduated with a university STEM degree between 2012 and 2015 (28%). When the authors further restricted the field of potential STEM graduates to high performers who expressed strong enjoyment, interest and self-efficacy in science, girls accounted for 41% of the pool.

Notably, the difference between expected and actual proportions of women among STEM graduates shrank significantly when the authors further restricted their student pool to those who were relatively stronger in science and mathematics, rather than reading. Using this definition, only one in three girls (34%) was expected to complete a STEM degree. In most countries, however, the percentage of women graduating in a STEM field was still smaller than expected.

The study suggests that students’ career choices may be influenced by their understanding of their relative academic strengths, as well as their confidence and interest in science. Unlike high-performing boys, high-performing girls may not pursue a career in science simply because they are likely to be at or near the top of the class in non-science subjects, too. For policy makers working toward greater gender parity in STEM fields, this implies that  tackling boys’ underperformance in reading may be just as important as supporting girls’ attitudes towards STEM subjects.

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The science of teaching science: An exploration of science teaching practices in PISA 2015

OECD Education Working Papers No. 188

With Alfonso Echazarra and Hélène Guillou

This paper explores the relationship between various science teaching strategies and students’ science-related outcomes. The focus is on enquiry-based science teaching, teacher-directed instruction, adaptive teaching and teacher feedback. The outcomes of interest include students’ science performance, and students’ dispositions and attitudes towards science. The findings show that the negative association between enquiry-based science teaching and science performance is greatly attenuated when lessons are delivered in disciplined science classes. This approach could help close the gender gap between girls and boys when it comes to attitudes towards science and to the decision to pursue a career in STEM-related fields. The results also show that teacher-directed instruction is a reliable strategy that is positively associated with students’ science outcomes regardless of school climate and resources. Adaptive teaching is positively correlated with science performance in the majority of countries, particularly in countries known for the use of personalised learning approaches, while teacher feedback is weakly but positively associated with science performance once students’ achievement in mathematics and reading is accounted for. In general, all teaching strategies have the potential to foster enjoyment of and interest in science, and students’ epistemic beliefs, self-efficacy in science and expectations of a career in science.

Link to paper in PDF

http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/f5bd9e57-en

 

The Science of Teaching Science: Evidence from PISA 2015

The Science of Teaching Science: Evidence from PISA 2015

Education experts have spent the last 50 years debating over a seemingly simple question: what’s the best way to teach science? On one side of the divide are those who support self-guided, enquiry-based approaches, under which students direct their own learning. On the other are proponents of teacher-directed instruction, who say this approach makes it easier for teachers to manage classrooms and cover a wider range of content. Complicating the debate even further is the increasing diversity of student populations, which has raised demands for science curricula to adapt to student needs through adaptive teaching approaches.

We take a closer look at each of these strategies in the latest issue of PISA in Focus. Using new evidence from PISA 2015, we found that each approach has advantages and drawbacks for learning – and that identifying the most effective strategy isn’t as clear cut a proposition as it may seem.

In almost all of the 68 countries and economies that participated in PISA, students in the least disciplined science classes perform worse when exposed to enquiry-based science teaching. But in 33 countries and economies, this negative association disappears when students are learning in a disciplined environment.

In Thailand, exposure to enquiry-based teaching accounted for a four-point increase in performance among students in the most disciplined science classes. But students exposed to enquiry-based teaching in the least disciplined classrooms, scored about 13 points lower than those in more disciplined environments. The benefits gained from attending disciplined science classes with enquiry-based teaching are largest in Georgia (+20 points), Kosovo (+15 points), Lebanon (+13 points), Malta (+14 points), and Slovenia (+13 points).

Our findings shed light on the real-world complexity of teaching.

In OECD countries, enquiry-based teaching seems like the most promising way to nurture positive attitudes toward science – including interest and enjoyment in science-related topics, and participation in science-related activities. We also found that all three teaching practices – enquiry-based, teacher-directed and adaptive teaching are associated with higher expectations among students to pursue a career in science. This association is particularly strong among girls who are exposed to enquiry-based teaching.

Teacher-directed science instruction, on the other hand, is associated with better science performance in almost all countries. This positive association is equally strong across all science sub-domains and proficiency levels, and does not vary with student and school characteristics (e.g. disciplinary climate, student composition, resources, etc.). Based on these findings, we can conclude that teacher-directed practices are likely to deliver good results regardless of environment.

Our findings also show that adapting science lessons to students’ needs is correlated with stronger science performance in the majority of countries, even after accounting for student and school characteristics. This relationship is particularly strong in the Nordic countries, which are known for their comprehensive education systems and their reliance on differentiated learning approaches.

So which strategy would be most effective for science teachers to deploy? Our findings suggest a combination of all three. For example, teachers with strong classroom-management skills and professional knowledge could guide student learning with explicit instruction of basic ideas, then ask them to carry out enquiry-based activities to consolidate their knowledge. At the same time, teachers could also adapt their science lessons to account for differences among students, and help those who have difficulty understand a particular topic.

This conclusion may not be satisfying for those who firmly support one approach over the other. But our findings shed light on the real-world complexity of teaching in various classroom environments – where teachers often have to find the right mix of different practices to achieve the best results for their students.

Science teachers’ satisfaction: Evidence from the PISA 2015 teacher survey

OECD working paper EDU/WKP(2018)4

With Judit Pál

In 2015, for the first time in its history, PISA (the Programme for International Student Assessment) asked teachers to describe the various aspects of their working environment and teaching practices. This paper examines how teacher, student and school characteristics are related to science teachers’ satisfaction in 19 PISA-participating countries and economies. The findings show that the most satisfied science teachers tend to be those who are initially motivated to become teachers. The results also highlight the positive relationship between science teachers’ satisfaction and teacher collaboration, good disciplinary climate in science classes, availability of school resources, and the opportunity to participate in professional-development activities.

Download paper in PDF

http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/1ecdb4e3-en

How Consistent is Respondent Behaviour to Allow Linkage to Health Administrative Data over Time?

With Richard Wiggins

CLS Working paper 2015/3.

This study constitutes the first longitudinal exploration of consent to link survey and administrative data. It relies on a theoretical framework distinguishing between passive, active, consistent and inconsistent consent behaviour. The findings show that, in general, consent behaviours are both passive and consistent. First, consent rates indicate that most respondents behave consistently over time. Secondly, the regression analyses show that for the majority of respondents, consent is not driven by personal convictions but rather depends on the circumstances of the respondent at the time of the interview and on the impact of the interviewers. The findings also show that in longitudinal surveys cross-sectional analyses of consent can be misleading. The changes in the magnitude and in the significance of the results when the temporal dimension of consent is taken into account is a clear indication that consent should be treated as a dynamic phenomenon.

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Variation within Households in Consent to Link Survey Data to Administrative Records Evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study

CLS Working paper 2014/8.

This study expands our knowledge of consent in linking survey and administrative data by studying respondents’ behaviour when consenting to link their own records and when consenting to link those of their children. It develops and tests a number of hypothesised mechanisms of consent, some of which were not explored in the past. The hypotheses cover: parental pride, privacy concerns, loyalty to the survey, pre-existing relations with the agency holding the data, and interviewer effects. The study uses data from the longitudinal Millennium Cohort Study to analyse the correlates of consent in multiple domains (i.e. linkage of education, health and economic records). It relies on a multivariate probit approach to model the different consent outcomes, and uses fixed and random effects specifications to estimate the effects of interviewers.The findings show that respondent’s behaviour vary depending on the consent domain (i.e. education, health, and economic records) and on the person for whom consent is sought (i.e. main respondent vs. cohort member). In particular, the cohort member’s cognitive skills and the main respondent’s privacy concerns have differential effects on consent. On the other hand, loyalty to the survey proxied by the longitudinal response history has a significant and strong impact on consent irrespective of the outcome. The findings also show that interviewers account for a large proportion of variations in consent even after controlling for the characteristics of the interviewer’s assignment area. In total, it is possible to conclude that the significant impact of some of the correlates will lead to sample bias which needs to be accounted for when working with linked survey and administrative data.

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Handling attrition and non-response in the 1970 British Cohort Study

With Richard Wiggins

CLS Working paper 2014/2.

The 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70) is a continuing multi-purpose, multidisciplinary longitudinal study based on a sample of over 17,000 babies born in England, Wales and Scotland in 1970. The study has collected detailed information from the cohort members on various aspects of their lives, including their family circumstances at birth, education, employment, housing and partnership histories. There have been nine sweeps of data collection so far: at birth and at ages 5, 10, 16, 26, 30, 34, 38 and most recently age 42 (2012). This paper studies the extent of attrition in BCS70 and how it affects sample composition over time. We examine the determinants of response then construct inverse probability weights. In the last section, we use a simulation study to illustrate the effectiveness of weights and imputations in dealing with unit non-response and item missingness respectively. Our findings show that when the predictive power of the response models is weak, the efficacy of non-response weights is undermined. Further, multiple imputations are effective in reducing the bias resulting from item missingness when the magnitude of the bias is high and the imputation models are well specified.

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Learning and Wellbeing Trajectories Among Older Adults in England

With Andrew Jenkins

DBIS Research Paper N° 92.

Published by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills – British Government.

In an ageing society such as the UK, there is much interest in factors which can contribute to the wellbeing of older adults. It is not implausible to suppose that participation in learning could have beneficial effects, yet most research on the wider benefits of learning has tended to focus on young people or those in mid-life and there is currently rather little evidence on the impact of learning on the wellbeing of older adults. Insofar as evidence does exist, most of it is qualitative, and while of much value and interest, it is based on very small, and possibly not very representative, samples of the older population. This research aimed to provide new, quantitative evidence drawing on a large, nationally representative sample, on the effects of participation in learning on the wellbeing of older adults.

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Trends in job quality in Europe

With Francis Green

Eurofound report published by the publications office of the European Union, Luxembourg.

This study measures job quality in the 27 countries of the European Union, as well as the seven additional countries in Europe that participated in the European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS). Four indices were constructed for the study: earnings, prospects, intrinsic job quality and working time quality. The four indices cannot be reduced into a single index of job quality because associations between them are weak, and none can increase over time nor move in similar directions. They are, however, theoretically and conceptually coherent.

The intention was to fi nd an objective means of assessing the principle established in a number of EU directives that work should adapt to the workers. The indices constructed for this study do not rely on subjective measurement such as preferences and attitudes, but are built on the self-reported features of jobs that are associated with workers’ well-being.

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Measuring the Impact of Universal Pre-School Education and Care on Literacy Performance Scores

With Andy Green

LLAKES Research Paper N° 36.

The objective of this paper is to simulate the effects of universal pre-school education and care (PSEC) on reading performance scores and educational inequalities in the UK and Sweden. We utilize the PISA 2009 data and start by estimating a fixed effects multilevel model for each country in order to determine the returns to PSEC attendance. Then we simulate the effects of universal PSEC provision using counterfactual data. More precisely, after estimating the multilevel model, we progressively universalize PSEC participation starting with the lowest economic, cultural and social status (ESCS) decile and moving up to reach the top decile. At each stage of the universalisation process we compute the average predicted performance scores for each ESCS decile and for each country as well as their dispersions. This allows us to measure the change in average predicted literacy scores and the change in the level of inequality.

Our findings show that all social groups benefit from universalizing PSEC with the lowest groups getting the highest additional benefits from universalisation. Further, the international rankings of both Sweden and the UK improve after the universalisation of PSEC. The UK moves 12 positions up the OECD league table and Sweden moves up seven positions. We also find that inequalities in test scores drop until reaching a minimum when the lower seven ESCS deciles are attending PSEC and then starts to increase again. In conclusion, our findings clearly show that universalising PSEC would be an effective policy instrument that boosts educational performances while reducing inequalities in their distribution.

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Pre-School Education and Care – a ‘Win-Win’ Policy?

With Andy Green

LLAKES Research Paper N° 32.

Pre-school education and care (PSEC) is often claimed as a ‘win-win’ policy which simultaneously enhances both economic competitiveness and social cohesion. High levels of PSEC are said to raise living standards by increasing female employment rates and improving young people’s skills and to mitigate inequalities by reducing social gaps in learning outcomes. Much of the evidence for this rests on analysis of data for a small number of countries. In this paper we test the claims using cross-national time series data for a large number of OECD countries. The analysis of determinants of employment rates, using a variety of controls, does confirm the association between PSEC participation levels and female employment rates. However, the cross-national analysis does not support the argument that raising aggregate levels of PSEC participation necessarily reduces social gaps in attainment at 15 years of age. Participation in PSEC increases educational performance at 15 by similar amounts for children of all social groups in most countries. Social gaps in performance at 15 may only be mitigated by high levels of PSEC provision where children from less advantaged families get more – or better quality – provision. The recently announced Department for Education plan to extend free provision of PSEC for fifteen hours a week to two-year-old children from disadvantaged families (i.e. in care or qualifying for free school meals) therefore points in the right direction. However, it remains to be seen whether this will bias participation towards this group sufficiently to reduce inequalities in learning outcomes.

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The Meso-Social Benefits of Vocational Education and Training for Social Groups and Communities

Report for CEDEFOP

This report for CEDEFOP considers the meso-social benefits for social groups and communities. This is a subject of considerable interest both academically in terms of the contribution of Vocational Education and Training at the community level, and in policy terms, as agendas in European countries are orientated towards community cohesion and active, participatory citizenship.

This report can be contextualised in terms of a long history of VET as being implicated in mitigating against the disruption of community due to changes in economy and society. Indeed, the focus on community, social groups and VET has been long standing, arising from major shifts in the nature of the global economy in the 21st century from an industrial to a knowledge based economy.

We consider that VET has two benefits for groups at the meso-level being social capital formation and psycho-social benefits (group identity and quality of life). We also consider that the benefits of VET might accrue differently to different social groups on the basis of characteristics such as income, gender, household type and citizenship.

We would expect people who engage in VET to benefit differentially according to their membership of different social groups. In this report we look at the differential benefits for social groups and communities. For quantitative purposes the five social groups identified are: income groups, gender, household type, citizenship (nationals, EU nationals, and nonnational), and birth place groups.

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Endogeneity Problems in Multilevel Estimation of Education Production Functions: an Analysis Using PISA Data

With Said Hanchane.

LLAKES Research Paper N° 14.

This paper explores endogeneity problems in multilevel estimation of education production functions. The focus is on level 2 endogeneity which arises from correlations between student characteristics and omitted school variables.We first develop a theoretical model in order to show that school and peer characteristics are the by-product of student background. This theoretical framework helps the identification of the hypotheses we would like to test within the empirical part. From an econometric point of view, the correlations between student and school characteristics imply that the omission of some variables may generate endogeneity bias. Therefore, in the second section of the paper, an estimation approach based on the Mundlak (1978) technique is developed in order to tackle bias and to generate consistent estimates.The entire analysis is undertaken in a comparative context between three countries: Germany, Finland and the UK. Each one of them represents a particular system. For instance, Finland is known for its extreme comprehensiveness, Germany for early selection and the UK for its liberalism. These countries are used to illustrate the theory and to prove that the level of bias arising from omitted variables varies according to the characteristics of education systems.

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The Chimera of Competitiveness: Varieties of Capitalism and the Economic Crisis.

With Andy Green and John Preston.

LLAKES Research Paper N° 8.

In this paper we assess the different definitions and theories of economic competitiveness at the firm and national levels. First we contrast the theories of classical liberal economists with those of the German historical school of national economics, noting the importance of the historical school for theories of national economic competitiveness. Drawing on the comparative political economy literature on ‘varieties of capitalism’, we then discuss the factors underlying competitiveness in social market economies, social democratic economies, and liberal economies.These models of capitalism are compared under six headings: labour markets and labour market institutions; financial markets; corporate funding and governance; inter-firm relations; the role of the state; and economic culture and history. In the penultimate section of the paper we discuss how the different models of capitalism have responded to the economic crisis and the impact of the crisis on their economic competitiveness. The paper concludes with a summary of the key points to emerge from the analysis and looks to how the scene may evolve as national economies begin to adapt.

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The Anatomy of Inequalities in Educational Achievements: An International Investigation of the Effects of Stratification

LLAKES Research Paper N° 3

This paper analyses the mechanisms of stratification and inequalities in achievements. The main objective is to determine how stratification leads to unequal educational outcomes and how inequalities are channelled through student characteristics, school characteristics and peer effects.

On the one hand, a descriptive analysis is used to shed light on the education systems of the five selected countries and to provide insight into the functioning of stratification. The countries are Japan, the UK, Italy, Germany and Finland, and the dataset used is PISA 2003. On the other hand, a multilevel econometric model is elaborated in order to quantify the effects of student, school and peer characteristics on performance scores. The results on the regressions are then interpreted according to the institutional context of each country. In the last section, policy implications, based on the regression results, are derived.

JEL Classification: I20, I21, H52.

Keywords: Educational stratification, achievement inequalities, comparative analysis of education systems, multilevel modelling.

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Educational Quality, Communities, and Public School Choice: a Theoretical Analysis

In this paper, we develop a multicommunity model where public mixed finance and private schools coexist. Students are differentiated by income, ability and social capital. Schools maximize their profits under a quality constraint; the pricing function is dependent on the cost of producing education and on the position of an individual relatively to mean ability and mean social capital. Income plays an indirect role since it determines the type of schools and communities that can be afforded by a student given his ability and social capital.

Three dimensional stratification results from schools’ profit maximization and individuals’ utility maximization. We study majority voting over tax rates; property tax is used to finance education not only in pure public schools but also in mixed finance schools. We provide the necessary conditions for the existence of a majority voting equilibrium determined by the median voter. Finally, we analyze the consequences of introducing public school choice.

JEL Classification: I20, H52, R31.

Keywords: Education market, majority voting equilibrium, peer group effects, formation of communities, school choice.

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School Choice: Income, Peer Effect and the Formation of Inequalities.

Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the equilibrium on the market for schooling where both public and private schools coexist and where individuals are differentiated by income and ability. We introduce a non linear in means model of peer effect by shedding the light on the fact that school quality is not solely dependent on mean ability but also on the dispersion of abilities. We study the distribution of students across sectors while examining the conditions for the existence of a majority voting equilibrium in the context of non single peaked preferences. Finally, we examine the presence of a hierarchy of school qualities. In the paper we shed the light on equity problems related to the access to educational quality while analyzing the functioning of the educational system.

JEL Classification: I20, I21, H52.

Keywords: Education market, majority voting equilibrium, peer group effect, pricing discrimination, educational opportunity.

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What makes for a satisfied science teacher?

What makes for a satisfied science teacher?

Teachers play a vital role in the lives of their students. They impart knowledge, provide pastoral care, act as role models and, above all, create an environment that’s conducive to learning. But teaching is fraught with numerous challenges that could lead to dissatisfaction and ultimately to drop-out from the profession. Science teachers are particularly vulnerable to quitting their jobs given the opportunities that exist outside the teaching profession.

So what makes a science teacher satisfied enough that he or she would want to keep teaching, despite the challenges they might face?

Data from PISA’s 2015 teacher questionnaire provide interesting evidence.

Science teachers who reported that pursuing a career in the teaching profession was their goal after finishing secondary school are far more satisfied with their jobs and with the profession as a whole. These teachers represent about 58% of all teachers on average across all countries. The relationship between these long-held ambitions and teacher satisfaction is strong across most countries and economies, and particularly in Beijing-Shanghai-Jiangsu-Guangdong (China), Brazil, the Dominican Republic, Peru and the United Arab Emirates.

But a lack of school educational and physical resources, and behavioural problems among students in school could undermine teachers’ satisfaction. For instance, teachers who perceive that the lack of teaching staff hinders instruction tend to be less satisfied with their profession and with their current job. The difference in satisfaction between the teachers who reported that these shortfalls hinder instruction to a great extent and those who reported little or no impact are the largest in Australia, Brazil, Chile, Germany, Macao (China) and the United Arab Emirates. The findings also show that in 10 out of 18 countries and economies, teachers’ satisfaction with their current job is positively associated with the disciplinary climate in science classes, as perceived by students. The associations are particularly strong in Brazil, the Dominican Republic, Germany, Peru and the United States.

The presence of a collaborative and collegial working environment could boost teacher satisfaction. In fact, teachers who reported frequent collaboration among their colleagues tend to be more satisfied with their job and with the profession as a whole. Collaborative activities are more common in Australia, Beijing-Shanghai-Jiangsu-Guangdong (China), Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Korea, Macao (China), Peru, Portugal and the United Arab Emirates, and less common in Brazil, Chile, the Czech Republic, Germany, Italy and the United States.

PISA 2015 also shows that science teachers who engaged in more than three types of professional-development activities during the preceding 12 months tend to be more satisfied with the teaching profession and with their current job. On average and across all countries, 52% of teachers undertook more than three different types of professional-development activities during the last 12 months. The proportions are particularly large in Beijing-Shanghai-Jiangsu-Guangdong China (82%), Brazil (65%), the Dominican Republic (76%), Peru (65%) and the United Arab Emirates (65%).

Last but not least, some factors usually associated with challenging learning environments, such as the presence of large proportions of immigrant students or of students who do not speak the language of the host country, are not linked to teachers’ dissatisfaction with their job or the profession. This finding is particularly interesting because it shows that teachers do not necessarily mind teaching in schools with more demanding student populations as long as the environment is conducive to learning, the school climate is positive, and adequate resources are available.

To sum up, teacher satisfaction is positively associated with factors known to improve students’ performance, such as collegial and positive school environments. In other words, teachers’ satisfaction is both an aspect and a consequence of the school environment. As such, one has to improve the learning experience for all students in order to boost teachers’ professional satisfaction.

Links 
The Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA)
PISA in Focus No. 81 – What do science teachers find most satisfying about their work?
Working Paper No. 168 – Science teachers’ satisfaction: Evidence from the PISA 2015 teacher survey

Follow the conversation on Twitter: #OECDPISA

Image source: @Shutterstock

The Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study 2015 National Report for England

The Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study 2015 National Report for England

I co-authored the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study 2015 national report for England with colleagues at the UCL Institute of Education (Toby Greany, Iain Barnes, Nicola Pensiero and Christina Swenson).

The full report can be accessed through the following link

In what follows is a summary authored by Toby Greany for the UCL IOE blog

 

The Trends in International Mathematics and Science Survey (TIMSS) now provides 20 years-worth of internationally comparable data on the mathematics and science performance of primary and secondary pupils worldwide, and the contexts in which they learn. England has participated in the study, which is now in its sixth four-yearly cycle, since its inception in 1995.  The 2015 national report, which I and a team from the UCL Institute of Education authored for the Department of Education, can be found here: TIMSS 2015.

Over 8,800 pupils across 290 schools participated in England’s TIMSS assessments last spring. The year 5 and year 9 pupils that sat the assessments have experienced quite substantial curriculum and qualifications reforms during their time in school: the year 5 pupils sat new Key Stage 2 assessments this summer, while the year 9 pupils will sit the new GCSE English and maths assessments next summer.

England’s pupils performed relatively badly in maths in 1995, coming below the international mean in both years 5 and 9. This prompted Michael Barber to argue for the introduction of a National Numeracy Strategy for primary schools a few years later.  Since then, performance in maths has improved significantly in both year groups, but particularly in year 5, where it is now significantly above the international mean.  2015 saw further small increases – compared to 2011 – in maths in both years 5 and 9, although neither increase was significant.

Performance in science was much better in 1995, and has remained significantly above the international mean in both year groups ever since. The worrying drop in year 5 science results in 2011 – which some attributed to the removal of universal science SATs for primary schools – appears to have been reversed between 2011 and 2015, with a significant improvement over the 20 year period. Performance in year 9 science has remained steady over the 20 years, with a small but not significant increase since 2011.

This picture of incremental improvement in maths, more volatile performance in year 5 science, and minimal change in year 9 science, leaves England firmly in the second highest-performing group of countries internationally in 2015. Meanwhile, the profile of countries above and below England has changed considerably over the two decades.  While the five East Asian countries (Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan) have generally occupied the highest performing group of countries in recent rounds of TIMSS, Singapore performed at a similar level to England in year 5 science in 1995, while Hong Kong performed significantly lower. Several countries (such as Kazakhstan, Poland, Slovenia and the Czech Republic) have seen significant improvements in one or more subject in recent rounds, sometimes placing them in the highest performing group overall.  Others (such as Australia, Canada and the Netherlands) that performed above or at the same level as England in 1995 have now dropped below us.

In many respects, England’s schools compare favourably with their international comparators. For example, according to their head teachers and/or teachers, schools here have fewer challenges with a lack of resources, with poor conditions, and with pupil behaviour than schools in most other countries, although there are other areas, such as teacher recruitment, staff challenges and job satisfaction for teachers, where they perform notably less well.  England’s schools score highly for their focus on academic performance, and this appears to be a particularly important factor in student attainment.

Digging below the headline results, some further key findings for England in 2015 that are explored in more depth in the report include:

  • boys are significantly ahead of girls again in year 5 maths (having previously narrowed this gap);
  • whilst there has been an increase over the last 20 years in our pupils’ maths performance at both years 5 and 9, pupils here make relatively little progress in maths between years 5 and 9;
  • the performance of our lowest achievers in England has improved in recent years, however far higher proportions of pupils in the highest performing countries achieve the Advanced and High benchmark scores than in England;
  • England has wider gaps between our more and less advantaged pupils (determined according to the number of books pupils report having at home) than most other high performing countries;
  • three curriculum areas where England performs poorly compared to our overall results are Chemistry and Algebra in year 9, and Geometric Shapes and Measures in year 5;
  • pupil confidence in a subject appears to matter more to pupil performance than engaging teaching or whether or not pupils value it, so it is encouraging that pupils in England are relatively confident in their maths and science education; and
  • English as an Additional Language appears to be a barrier in science, but not in maths.

So England has improved its performance in TIMSS over the past 20 years, if not perhaps by as much as we might have hoped given the relentless pace and scale of the reforms we have seen in that period.

Both TIMSS and PISA (which will be published on 6th December) provide important sources for understanding trends in own national performance as well as starting points for exploring how and why different countries improve or decline on these international assessments.  TIMSS itself is not designed to answer such questions, but it does offer some tantalising clues that warrant further investigation.  For example, the East Asian group of countries performs phenomenally well in the assessments, but these countries often score less well in other areas; for example, with fewer pupils valuing or liking learning maths and science than in many other parts of the world, and with high levels of challenge for teachers and low levels of teacher job satisfaction.  It is also important to note the high levels of home tutoring in these countries, often involving more than 50% of pupils.  As ever with international comparisons the importance of cultural and contextual differences cannot be ignored here but, as England adopts ever more of its curriculum content and maths pedagogy from East Asia, it will be important to understand how these wider factors interact to secure high performance.

In a time of global uncertainty and complex social and economic challenges, education becomes more important than ever: the need for social justice, international understanding and engaged democracies has never been greater and education can contribute in all three areas. International studies such as TIMSS can support informed debate and thereby help build high quality education systems around the world, but in order for this to happen we must go beyond simplistic policy borrowing to enable genuine opportunities for system learning.

The Centre for Longitudinal Studies Missing Data Strategy

To impute or not to impute? A practical guide for handling missing data in longitudinal surveys. George Ploubidis.

Maximising the plausibility of the Missing At Random Assumption: Results from the 1958 British birth cohort. Tarek Mostafa.

How well do methods that assume data are Missing At Random perform when the missing data generating mechanism is not ignorable?  Evidence from the 1958 British birth cohort. Brian Dodgeon.

Variation within households in consent to link survey data to administrative records: Evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study

Variation within households in consent to link survey data to administrative records: Evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study

Tarek Mostafa

This article was first published in the NCRM newsletter.

Longitudinal surveys face significant challenges due to the rise in survey costs, attrition over time, and non-coverage of the target population. A promising solution to some of these problems is survey and administrative data linkage. Administrative data linkage leads to shorter interviews, less respondent burden and an overall reduction in costs (1) in addition to the gain of valuable information on respondents. However, access to administrative data is restricted by consent. Non-consent occurs when respondents refuse permission to link their administrative records to their survey data. It results in smaller samples and possibly in sample bias if the likelihood of consent is related to the characteristics of respondents.

This study aims to advance our knowledge about consent by analysing adult respondents’ behaviour when consenting to link their own administrative records in contrast to their behaviour when consenting to link someone else’s records (i.e. the cohort member in the Millennium Cohort Study). These variations in consent behaviour have not been explored in the past. All previous studies focused on respondents consenting to link their own records but not those of other members of their household (2, 3). The paper uses data from the UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) and focuses on consent to link the cohort member’s health and educational records and the main respondent’s health and economic records (all consents are sought in wave 4 of MCS). The study attempts to answer the following research questions:

Do respondents behave differently when consenting to link their own administrative records in comparison to consenting to link those of their children?

Does respondents’ consent behaviour vary according to the domain of consent, e.g. health, economic, education records?

What is the impact of interviewers on consent outcomes and can interviewer effects be separated from the impact of an interviewer’s geographical assignment?

In summary, the findings show that main respondents behave differently when consenting to link their own records and when consenting on behalf of the cohort members. For instance, parents of children with high cognitive skills are more likely to consent on linking their children’s educational records. In contrast, the child’s cognitive skills do not affect the parents’ likelihood to link their own health and economic records. Moreover, being a private person has a more significant effect on the MRs outcomes than those of the CM. When it comes to loyalty to the survey, respondents who have missed a wave in the past are found to be less likely to consent irrespective of the outcome. In contrast, partial evidence was found in support of the impact of past relationship with the agency holding the administrative data. Among the sociodemographic characteristics of respondents, ethnicity was found to have the strongest impact irrespective of the outcome. Nonwhite respondents are less likely to consent. The cross-equation correlations measured through the multivariate probit models showed that the highest level of association is between outcomes sought for the same respondent (i.e. MRs consenting for linking their own records vs. MRs consenting for linking the CMs records).When interviewers’ effects were included through the use of fixed effects models, the explanatory power of the models increased by 3 to 4 times. This indicates that the interviewers’ characteristics and behaviour have a large effect on consent.

In terms of fieldwork practices, the findings suggest that it is possible to identify the respondents who are less likely to consent (ethnic minorities, respondents with higher privacy concerns, and respondents who have dropped out from the survey in the past). Interviewers have a strong impact on consent, therefore in the case of low consent rates, the matching of interviewers and respondents and the allocation of interviewers, with more survey experience, to difficult cases might improve consent rates. The findings also indicate that the linked administrative data is likely to suffer from sample composition bias due to non-consent. This is of a particular interest for the MCS data users. For instance the linked MCS and educational records are likely to lose children with lower cognitive skills. Similarly the high and significant impact of ethnicity means that samples are likely to lose non-white minorities. Since ethnicity is highly correlated with educational, health and economic outcomes, the data contained in the linked administrative records will be affected by non-consent. However, the total level of bias depends on non-consent and on the extent of non-linkage (the failure to link data even if consent was given) which might alleviate or exacerbate the initial non-consent bias.

A full paper on this topic was published in the International Journal of Social Research Methodology: Mostafa, T. (2015). Variation within Households in Consent to Link Survey Data to Administrative Records: Evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study. International Journal of Social Research Methodology. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13645 579.2015.1019264

References

1 Sakshaug, J., Couper, M., Ofstedal, M., & Weir, D. (2012). Linking survey and administrative records: Mechanisms of consent. Sociological Methods and Research, 41, 535–569

2 Korbmacher, J., & Schroeder, M. (2013). Consent when linking survey data with administrative records: The role of the interviewer. Survey Research Methods, 7, 115–131

3 Sala, E., Burton, J., & Knies, G. (2012). Correlates of obtaining informed consent to data linkage: Respondent, interview, and interviewer characteristics. Sociological Methods and Research, 41, 414–439

How consistent is respondent behaviour to allow linkage to health administrative data over time?

How consistent is respondent behaviour to allow linkage to health administrative data over time?

Tarek Mostafa and Richard D Wiggins, University College London.

This article was first published in the NCRM newsletter (Summer 2015).

Household surveys are increasingly being linked to administrative records with the potential of greatly enriching survey content on subjects such as health, education and income. One major challenge to data linkage is nonconsent. Non-consent occurs when respondents refuse permission to link their administrative records to their survey data. This problem inevitably leads to information loss and possibly bias if consent is correlated with key characteristics of the respondents.

Despite the recent developments in the analysis of consent [2, 3, 4, 5] the evidence is still scarce. The existing literature focused on the patterns of consent arising in cross-sectional surveys and very little is known about consent behaviour over time. Our study is one of the first longitudinal explorations of consent in the context of attempts to link survey and administrative data. It relies on a theoretical framework which distinguishes between passive, active, consistent and inconsistent consent behaviour and uses a series of models including multivariate probit analyses in order to identify the nature of consent as a latent trait and linear probability models which include interviewers as fixed effects.

The study exploits three consent questions to link health records held by the National Health Service (NHS) to the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS). The questions correspond to waves 1 (age 9 months), 2 (age 3 years) and 4 (age 7 years) of MCS. The questions are: To what extent is consent behaviour consistent over time? and Can consent behaviour be described as active or passive?

In order to answer the questions Cialdini’s [1] framework on compliance in survey research is developed by testing four scenarios which sub-divide consistency/ inconsistency in consent behaviour along the lines of activeness/passiveness. Active consistency is the case where respondents are aware of their previous choices and are committed to make the same choices on future occasions because of stable beliefs or personality traits (e.g. belief in the importance of scientific research, being a private person, etc). Passive consistency is the case where respondents make consistent choices over time even though the decision making process is passive. This means that consent decisions do not reflect an active adherence to well-defined beliefs but rather external influences such as the respondents’ circumstances at the time of the interview and the impact of the interviewers. Active inconsistency is the case where respondents are aware of their previous choices and intentionally behave in inconsistent ways. This change in behaviour could be the result of a change in convictions. For instance, a past consenter might actively decide to withhold consent after a breach to data confidentiality. Passive inconsistency is the case where respondents switch from consenters to non-consenters or vice versa. This switch is not the result of changes in convictions but rather the result of changes to the circumstances of the respondent (e.g. divorce, acute health problems), changes to the interviewers over time (e.g. persistence in pursuing consent), and the fact that respondents could have forgotten what they did in the past. In all cases, the respondent has a passive role and the changes in consent behaviour are caused by extrinsic factors.

In summary the analyses provide evidence in support of passive consistent behaviour. Firstly, 77% of respondents behaved consistently over time by either consenting or refusing to consent in all waves. Secondly, the cross-equation correlations from the multivariate probit models showed that the unobserved parts of the consent outcomes are weakly associated over time, and therefore, cannot really be held to indicate the existence of strongly held latent convictions about consent. Thirdly, the likelihood of consent and the likelihood of switching behaviour over time are related to the respondents’ circumstances, and to the variation the impact interviewers have on the respondents’ willingness to consent. These three findings indicate that, for the majority of respondents, consent is not driven by personal convictions but rather depends on the circumstances of the respondent at the time of the interview and on the potential influence of the interviewers.

In sum when it comes to using linked survey and administrative data, users need to take into account the potential sample bias resulting from the correlations between the respondents’ characteristics and the agreement to consent. On a practical level the longitudinal evidence based on our project suggest that it is important to brief interviewers about what to expect and encourage them to adapt to the respondent’s circumstances when attempting to gain their cooperation to consent to record linkage.

References

1 Cialdini, R. Wosinska, W. Barrett, D. Butner, J. and Gornik-Durose, M. 1999. Compliance with a Request in Two Cultures: The Differential Influence of Social Proof and Commitment/ Consistency on Collectivists and Individualists. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 25, 1242-1253.

2 Korbmacher, J. and Schroeder, M. 2013. Consent When Linking Survey Data with Administrative Records: The Role of the Interviewer. Survey Research Methods 7, 115–131.

3 Mostafa, T. 2015. Variation within Households in Consent to Link Survey Data to Administrative Records: Evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study. International Journal of Social Research Methodology, published online on: 23 March 2015.

4 Sakshaug, J. Couper, M. Ofstedal, M. and Weir, D. 2012. Linking survey and administrative records mechanisms of consent. Sociological Methods and Research 41, 535-569.

5 Sala, E. Burton, J. and Knies, G. 2012. Correlates of obtaining informed consent to data linkage: respondent, interview and interviewer characteristics. Sociological Methods and Research 41, 414–439.

Zaatari refugee camp, Jordan

Providing Education to the Syrian Refugees: ‘No Lost Generation’ a Promising Initiative

Syrian refugee children sit inside a makeshift school tent in Lebanon

Since the start of the conflict in Syria in March 2011, more than 6.5 million Syrians were displaced and another 3 million became refugees in neighbouring countries such as Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq (figures from October 2014). According to UNHCR 3.2 million Syrians are now registered with the UN refugee agency; half of them are children below the age of 17. In some countries the influx of refugees has raised serious challenges to the abilities of governments, NGOs and international organizations, to provide the needed services such as food, shelter, education, and health.

In Lebanon, according to UNHCR, the number of Syrian school-aged children will exceed the number of Lebanese children who were enrolled in the public system in 2012. Eighty percent of those children were not in school as of September 2013. In addition to this, drop-out among Syrian refugees is twice as high as the national average. In Jordan, the situation is not much better with 56% of Syrian children not enrolled in school.

Aerial view of the Zaatari refugee camp in JordanThe inability of the educational infrastructure to cope with the influx of refugees is compounded by the lack of adequate funding, the lack of trained teachers, the need for transportation, and the need for specialized services for children with disabilities. Other challenges also include the differences between the Syrian and Lebanese or Jordanian curriculums. In particular, in Lebanon, Syrian children have to study science and mathematics in either English or French while in Syria teaching is done exclusively in Arabic. Furthermore, children who have missed school for more than two years (usually older than 12) are more difficult to reintegrate into the education system since they are older than their peers. In addition to this, a large number of children are obliged to work in order to sustain their families.

Zaatari refugee camp
Zaatari refugee camp

Facing all these challenges a number of initiatives are being developed with the objective of alleviating the impact of the conflict on young Syrians. The ‘No Lost Generation Initiative’ is the largest among them. The initiative was launched in October 2013 by a consortium of UN agencies, governments, NGOs, and donors. Since then, numerous countries and organizations have pledged funding and the results are promising. Over the last year, 770,000 children received some form of education and more than 660,000 received psychological support. Enrolment of Syrian children in neighbouring countries has increased from 169,500 in 2013 to 489,000 in 2014. Now the major challenge facing the initiative is ensuring the sustainability of its funding.

 

For more information on the situation of Syrian refugees refer to:

The World Bank’s report on Syrian refugees in Lebanon.

The UNHCR’s report on the countries hosting Syrian refugees.

The different reports of the No Lost Generation Initiative.

Oxfam’s Syria, a children’s crisis?

Save the Children’s Untold Atrocities: The Stories of Syria’s Children.

Consent to admin data linkage and bias

Consent to admin data linkage and bias

Surveys are increasingly being linked to administrative records with the potential of greatly enriching survey content on subjects such as health and education at a limited extra cost. One major challenge to data linkage is when respondents refuse permission to link their administrative records to a survey. This problem leads to a reduction in sample size and to sample bias if consent is correlated with respondents’ characteristics.

At the Centre for Longitudinal Studies we are carrying out an ESRC-funded project to analyse consent to admin data linkage in the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS). MCS follows 19,000 children born in the UK in 2000-01 and, so far, data has been collected when the cohort members were nine months, three, five, and seven years old. One of the important features of MCS is that the same consent questions are sought from the main respondent (i.e. the child’s parent, in most cases the mother) and the partner, and some of the questions are asked at each wave of data collection. The aim of this project is to assess the correlates of consent and to ascertain whether a latent propensity to consent exists across domains, at the household level and over time.

When we analysed multiple consent questions from MCS wave 4 for the main respondent, we found that ethnicity, gender, age, the respondent being a reserved person (as reported by the respondent), and the number of siblings in the household had a significant effect on the likelihood to consent. We also found a highly significant latent propensity to consent between all consent questions irrespective of the domain since all questions were answered by the main respondent.

At the household level four we analysed consent outcomes for two domains – health and economic records – two for the main respondent and two for the partner. The variables with the highest and most significant effects were: religion, the respondent being reserved, respondent’s age and whether the respondent received benefits. The analyses also showed that even if different respondents in the same household answered these questions, a strong and significant latent propensity to consent did exist; the strongest being for the combinations of questions answered by the same respondent.

In general, we found that respondents from ethnic minorities, older respondents and those who are more reserved were less likely to consent to data linkage. In contrast, non-religious respondents, white respondents, those with larger families, and those receiving benefits were more likely to consent. However, the impact of these variables varied according to the subject of consent and who was asked for consent.

When consent was analysed over time for the same respondent and the same domain (i.e. health), only ethnicity and whether the respondent is a reserved person had a significant effect. Further, the results showed that a weak latent propensity to consent exists between consent outcomes over time. This particular finding indicates that the likelihood to consent depends on two major groups of factors, those that are fixed over time (e.g. ethnicity) and those that reflect the circumstances surrounding the interview. The first group is likely to influence consent over time because it is intrinsic to the respondent. In contrast the second group of variables represent extrinsic circumstances which are time specific. Further, the weak latent propensity to consent over time is probably an indication that people forget what they did on the last survey and hence only their intrinsic characteristics affect their choice.

Beyond MCS, the findings of this study suggest that if consenters were very different in terms of their characteristics from the entire sample of respondents and if non-consent is high, then the significant impact of some of the correlates (e.g. ethnicity, openness, age,) requires adjustment for consent bias. Weights and multiple imputations can be used for this purpose. However, the efficiency of these techniques depends on the ability of the researcher to identify the variables which correlate with consent.

This article was first published in the December issue of Research Matters.

Learning: a cost effective intervention for a healthier old age

Learning: a cost effective intervention for a healthier old age

This post was first written for the blog of the Institute of Education by Dr. Andrew Jenkins.

It is based on research undertaken by Andrew and I for the Department of Business, Innovation and Skills. Please follow the link to download the report.

We live in an ageing society. On current estimates the European population aged over 60 will continue to grow by about 2 million people a year over the next couple of decades and by 2060 over 65s will make up some 30% of the European population. Finding ways to minimise the resulting strain on pension and healthcare systems is a major long-term challenge for policy-makers.

But older adults can also be considered a resource to society so the idea of active ageing must be central in addressing demographic change. Active ageing means growing old in good health and as a full member of society: having the opportunity to continue to participate in paid or voluntary work, remaining independent in daily life and involved as citizens. Older people have much to contribute to society and in turn will enjoy a better quality of life if they are able to do so. The EU’s designation of 2012 as the European Year of Active Ageing and Solidarity between Generations underscores this point.

So, if the objective is to maintain the wellbeing of individuals as they age, what is the contribution that participation in learning can make? Research has been growing on this topic but has been skewed towards small scale qualitative studies which, while of much interest and value, are not readily generalisable. Our study “Learning and Wellbeing Trajectories Among Older Adults in England” (pdf) aimed to strengthen the evidence base by drawing on quantitative data.

Using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), a large-scale, nationally-representative survey of older adults, we focused on people in their 50s and 60s, and related a measure of their wellbeing to participation in several types of learning.

The most striking finding was that it was consistently the non-vocational and relatively informal types of learning (such as music/arts groups and evening classes) which were associated with increases in wellbeing, rather than formal, more vocationally-oriented education and training courses.

Quantitative studies also have the advantage of yielding precise estimates of the magnitude of effects. As people grew older, their wellbeing gradually declined. But the measured impact of participation in (non-vocational) learning was at least sufficient to offset this gradual decline in wellbeing as people became older. Another way of expressing these results is that the boost to wellbeing delivered by engagement in learning was about one-quarter of the size of moving from the bottom to the middle of the wealth distribution. These estimates, then, show very clearly that learning participation has a useful role to play as a contributor to the wellbeing of older adults.

Of course, quantitative studies of this type do not tell us very much about the reasons why participation in non-vocational learning affected the wellbeing of older adults while vocational courses did not. But previous, qualitative evidence, can help to fill that gap. It seems plausible that vocational courses would only have benefits in the longer term and only when they led on to more satisfying work or promotion. Participation in non-vocational learning activities such as music or arts groups or evening classes, on the other hand, would be more likely to be undertaken because of their intrinsic enjoyment or possibly because of opportunities for getting out and socialising. These are important reasons for learning at older ages. Older adults often appreciated learning because it helped them to be receptive to new ideas, to improve understanding and maintain a positive outlook. Opportunities for increased social participation, for meeting up and studying with friends and the forming of new networks, were also important factors.

In general, it is not at all easy to think of policy instruments which can make an effective contribution to active ageing. If learning can play even a small part in contributing to good health and wellbeing, or helping people to live independent lives for longer, then providing relevant and interesting courses for older adults is a remarkably cheap and cost-effective intervention.

Despite the accumulating evidence of the benefits of learning for older adults in England, rates of participation in adult education have tended to decline in recent years. Some of this decline may be blamed on the recession – people having less money to spend on learning. But the decline has occurred primarily because of deliberate changes in adult education policy. Since 2004 – that is under both Labour and Conservative/Liberal governments – the policy has been to reduce the amount of money available for short courses and other unaccredited types of learning in order to concentate funding on longer-term, qualification-bearing courses aimed at 16-24 year olds.

It was no great surprise then, that when the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills recently, and rather belatedly, published the results of the 2010 National Adult Learning Survey (pdf) it showed some sharp declines in both non-formal learning (taught classes not leading to qualifications) and informal learning (involving self-study to improve knowledge). Indeed it was found that participation in learning had declined across almost all age groups with the exception of 16-19 year olds, with the decline being most noticeable among those aged 60 and over. This was a significant reversal of rising participation rates shown by earlier surveys.

Policies channelling public funds towards accredited and vocational learning carries the risk that other forms of learning, and any benefits which derive from them, will be neglected. Yet, in our ageing society, if adult learning can play a role in maintaining the health and wellbeing of older citizens then there must be a strong case for the state to invest in it.

Universal pre-school systems boost pupil scores and reduce educational inequalities, study finds

Universal pre-school systems boost pupil scores and reduce educational inequalities, study finds

Press release: Monday, December 10, 2012

Institute of Education, University of London – (Written by David Budge)

The UK would have a much higher ranking in international pupil performance tables if a universal pre-school education system had been established in the 1990s, a new study suggests.

Researchers at the Institute of Education, University of London, estimate that the UK’s 15-year-olds would have finished 13th out of more than 60 countries in the most recent PISA literacy test – rather than 25th – if they had all experienced more than a year of pre-schooling.

The calculation is based on an analysis of the test scores and early educational experiences of 12,179 pupils in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland who took part in the 2009 PISA reading assessment. The test was conducted by the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and was taken by pupils in 482 UK schools.

The IOE study also confirms that while all social groups benefit from pre-school provision, children from the lowest socio-economic groups gain most from universal schemes. This is because in the UK, and most other countries, it is the poorest children, and those from immigrant backgrounds, who have traditionally been least likely to receive pre-school education.

Only 54 per cent of the UK PISA candidates in the bottom socio-economic group had received pre-school education, compared with 73 per cent in the most advantaged group.

The study’s findings provide support for the coalition government’s decision to extend pre-school provision to 130,000 two-year-olds from the most disadvantaged families from September 2013. A further 130,000 two-year-olds from poorer families will be offered 15 hours a week of free nursery education or care from September 2014. All three and four-year-olds in England are already entitled to 15 hours of free nursery education for 38 weeks of the year.

“We expect that this rise in free provision for the most disadvantaged two-year-olds will increase their literacy attainments at age 15 and will reduce inequalities in educational performance scores between children from different social backgrounds,” say the study’s authors, Dr Tarek Mostafa and Professor Andy Green. “It will help to develop children’s cognitive skills at the formation stage before they become resistant to change.”

The researchers also looked at the pre-school experiences of the 4,567 Swedish children from 189 schools who took the 2009 PISA test. This exercise showed that Sweden could have climbed seven places in the PISA table – to 12th — if there had been a universal pre-school scheme in the 1990s.

Mostafa and Green have also calculated that in both England and Sweden the score gaps between different social-class groups could have been minimized if all children – except the most advantaged 30 per cent – had been offered high quality pre-school provision. However, they acknowledge that such a strategy would be socially divisive.

A universal scheme, on the other hand, would help to maintain a sense of solidarity among different social groups. It would also be fairer than the socially-skewed system that existed in both countries in the 1990s. Its only disadvantage is cost, they say. Ensuring that every child received pre-school education would be expensive.

“We decided to compare two countries which are supposed to be very different in terms of their approach to education to see whether the effects of universal pre-school education would be similar,” the researchers explain. “Surprisingly, they are – both in terms of raising national averages and in helping to equalise educational outcomes. The latter finding is, in a sense, especially significant as it has not been clear until now that high participation rates lead to more equal educational outcomes. This study confirms that they do.”

Further analysis of the PISA data also suggests that other countries with very different education systems — Germany, Italy, Australia, Canada and Spain — would also have witnessed the same positive effects. Again, this was largely because in each of these countries children from poorer backgrounds have also been less likely to experience pre-school education.

The researchers accept that over the past 10 years the debate has shifted from whether children should receive a year of pre-schooling to whether they should have two, three or four years. But they believe that the basic message of their study – that universal pre-school schemes raise standards and equalise outcomes – remains true.

They also point out that more equal distributions of skills and qualifications amongst adults – something that a universal pre-school system should help to bring about — are associated with more equal incomes. “These, in turn, are associated with a wide range of social benefits, including better public health, lower crime rates and higher levels of trust,” they add.

Mostafa, T. and Green, A. (2012) Measuring the Impact of Universal Pre-School Education and Care on Literacy Performance Scores, is published by the Centre for Learning and Life Chances in Knowledge Economies and Societies (LLAKES), an IOE research centre funded by the Economic and Social Research Council. The paper is available from: http://www.llakes.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/36.-Mostafa-Green.pdf

Further information

David Budge
d.budge@ioe.ac.uk
020 7911 5349
07881 415362

Meghan Rainsberry
m.rainsberry@ioe.ac.uk
020 7612 6530
075 3186 4481

Notes for editors

1. The PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment) tests, which are conducted every three years, measure the “functional ability” of 15-year-olds in reading, maths and science. To date, more than 70 countries and economies have participated in PISA. The 2009 survey included a city (Shanghai), a special administrative region (Hong Kong) and a city state (Singapore) as well as nations.

2. The UK breakdown of the total numbers of schools and pupils taking part in the 2009 PISA literacy tests is as follows: England (165 schools/4,081 pupils); Wales (132 schools/3,270 pupils); Scotland (98 schools/2,631 pupils); Northern Ireland (87 schools/2,197 pupils).

3. In the UK and Sweden, the proportion of 2009 PISA candidates who received more than a year of pre-school education in the 1990s was almost identical – 64.7 per cent in the UK and 64.9 per cent in Sweden. However, children in the UK were likely to experience two years of pre-school provision while those in Sweden had up to four years.

4. In a research paper published last year Mostafa and Green noted that pre-school provision does not necessarily equalise educational outcomes because individuals from each social group tend to benefit by the same amount. The logic of this argument still holds – analyses of PISA data conducted by the OECD have reached much the same conclusion. However, in reality, as their new study points out, participation in pre-school education and care has tended to be skewed towards higher social groups. Extending pre-school provision through universal schemes would therefore equalise outcomes.

5. LLAKES researchers are studying the bonds holding together different societies, and the role that education systems play in promoting – or undermining – social cohesion. The research brings together the findings from different social science disciplines and uses a variety of empirical methods and data sources to explore these issues. Further information from www.llakes.org

6. The Institute of Education is a college of the University of London that specialises in education and related areas of social science and professional practice. In the most recent Research Assessment Exercise two-thirds of the Institute’s research activity was judged to be internationally significant and over a third was judged to be “world leading”. The Institute was recognised by Ofsted in 2010 for its “high quality” initial teacher training programmes that inspire its students “to want to be outstanding teachers”. The IOE is a member of the 1994 Group, which brings together 12 internationally renowned, research-intensive universities. More at www.ioe.ac.uk

7. The Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) is the UK’s largest organisation for funding research on economic and social issues. It supports independent, high quality research which has an impact on business, the public sector and the third sector. The ESRC’s total budget for 2012-13 is £205 million. At any one time the ESRC supports over 4,000 researchers and postgraduate students in academic institutions and independent research institutes. More at www.esrc.ac.uk

ENDS/……….

Educational reforms in the Middle East and North Africa: what is to be done?

Educational reforms in the Middle East and North Africa: what is to be done?

This article was first published on the DevEd Community blog under ‘Into Africa: Special Series’.

Since the 1960s the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have witnessed a dramatic improvement in educational quality, student performance, and participation rates. However, in spite of these improvements, MENA is still lagging behind other comparatively similar countries. In fact, MENA still suffers from high dropout rates, low performance scores on international assessment tests, comparatively high rates of illiteracy, persistent gender inequalities, and the inability of the education system to generate the skills required in an increasingly competitive world.

The challenges MENA is facing

The improvements that the region knew during the last decades, though important, are still insufficient to maintain economic competitiveness and social development. In fact, most of the MENA countries were able to drastically increase participation in basic and secondary education by increasing the proportion of their GDP spent on education. In addition, they managed to almost eliminate the gender gap in participation in basic education and to reduce the illiteracy rates by significant amounts.
However, despite all such improvements, MENA is still lagging behind many of its comparator countries (e.g. Malasia) especially in the areas of secondary and higher education. In fact, more than half of the university students in MENA are pursuing degrees in social sciences instead of science and mathematics. This is the opposite of what is happening in East Asia. The major consequence of the lack of synchronicity between the education system and the labor market was the high level of unemployment among the well educated.
Similarly, the impact of education on economic growth, on the reduction of income inequalities, and on the reduction of poverty is weak. One of the reasons behind this weakness is that, even though participation has improved, the quality of education was too low to contribute to improvements in productivity and growth. Moreover, educational performances were lower in MENA than in its competitors. This meant that direct foreign investments were driven to these competitors because their economies offered the right skills for business development. Finally, the variations in the quality of instruction within MENA meant that the distribution of skills is highly unequal in terms of geographical areas, gender, and social class. Of course one has to keep in mind that each country within MENA has its own context, but nonetheless most of them share the same problems.
Today, MENA’s main challenge is to adapt and to evolve within the framework of the knowledge economy since it is no longer possible to compete on the basis of cheap unqualified labor. In fact, the absence of adequate skills means that these countries will fail to attract foreign investments. Hence, education can no longer be organized in the shape of a pyramid where the number of students decreases with the level of education. In fact what is needed now is a more diverse and comprehensive post-compulsory education system that delivers skills adapted to the needs of the economy and to each country’s context. These skills should reflect the diversity of abilities and aspirations within the student population.
Moreover, the demographic boom that these countries have experienced in the recent past means that funding the education system will also be challenging in the future since the number of students will certainly increase. One should note that in most of these countries the participation of the private sector in the delivery of education is very limited.

The reforms

Since the previous educational reforms in MENA have failed to deliver on their promises, now it is time to think of new paradigms.
Increasing the quality of educational provision: This consists of improving the quality of a combination of inputs, including teachers’ qualifications, instruction, curricula, equipment and infrastructure. The quality of these inputs should be improved simultaneously while giving attention to the distribution of such inputs in terms of geographical territory, gender and social class. The state can play an important role by coordinating the efforts of different actors (i.e. public, private, local, nongovernmental).
Reforming the incentives system: Incentives are extremely important in fostering efficient behavior among the actors on the education market. For instance, in some cases teachers and school principals can act independently of any supervision; hence new mechanisms that link educational performances to teacher and principal benefits must be established. However, one has to note that such incentives are hard to operate since it is difficult to determine what is due to teacher performances and what is due to other determinants.
Reforming the role of the state: public authorities responsible for the management of the education system should take into account the requirements of the “consumers”, and the latter should also be able to influence the decisions of educational authorities. Such reforms require the decentralization of some tasks to the local or school levels. This will allow local authorities, principals and teachers to customize educational provision and instruction according to the needs of the students (given their context, culture, economic situation, social class, gender, etc).
Synchronizing the education system with the needs of the labor market: the education system should deliver a diverse array of skills which correspond to the needs of the economy. Hence, it should become more sensitive to such needs. This requires tailoring education around the needs of the market while moving away from manufacturing standard skills into cultivating them through personalized education.
Reforming the education systems across the Middle East and North Africa should become a priority especially that the wind of change is sweeping through this part of the world. Democratization need not be limited to the political process and should extend to education among other areas. Any undertaken reforms must reflect the needs and aspirations of the people, while preparing them for the future economic and social challenges.

Measuring Job Quality.

Measuring Job Quality.

Extract from LLAKES newsletter n4.

What do we mean by “job quality”, and how can we design indices to measure it? These are the central questions in another LLAKES European research project being led by Francis Green.

The project follows a call from the European Foundation for Living and Working Conditions, an agency of the European Union based in Dublin, to carry out analyses of its 5th European Working Conditions Survey, which was completed in 34 countries during 2010. Working together with LLAKES researcher, Tarek Mostafa, Francis’s bid won the contract to devise job quality indices from the data, and to use the indices to describe the distribution and growth of job quality in Europe.

From the outset, the idea of job quality needed to be defined, the concept was focused squarely on objective features of the job, rather than on personal characteristics of the worker. Indices for wages, intrinsic work quality, employment quality (security and prospects), and work-life balance features were devised. Rather than focusing just on wages, which economists generally favoured, or combining them artificially to form a single index, it was decided to analyse the four indices separately. Tarek and Francis have since been busy analysing how these aspects of jobs vary across socioeconomic groups, and between European countries. We know that wages were increasing steadily in many countries, prior to the great recession of 2008, and that earnings had become much more unequal, including in Britain. Of particular interest is what’s been happening to the non-wage aspects of job quality over time. Is it getting any better? If so, in what dimensions? Is it becoming more unequally distributed across the population? Up to now very little has been known about these matters. Francis presented some initial findings on these issues to a conference on job quality in early November at Cornell University, New York State, organised by the Industrial and Labor Relations Review, in a paper entitled “Is job quality becoming more unequal?” In US conferences one is sometimes urged to make sure to include his “elevator” answer in his presentation, (i.e. the summary you would give to someone important if you found yourself describing your paper’s argument during a ride in the lift). In this case, Francis’ elevator statement required less than one floor: “not in Europe”. It was found that work quality, work intensity and work-life balance features were all becoming less, not more, unequal between 1995 and 2010; while environmental security (i.e. absence of physical and ergonomic hazards) was pretty stable.

Preschool Education and Care: a Win-Win Policy

Preschool Education and Care: a Win-Win Policy

A new study that I conducted with Professor Andy Green suggests that preschool education and care has a positive effect on female employment and on educational performance at the age of 15, but it does not help close the gap between poorer students and their peers.

Debates about policy frequently involve identifying social and economic trade-offs. A policy which is designed to boost economic competitiveness may have negative social consequences or, conversely, policies designed to enhance social cohesion may come at a high economic cost. The tensions between economic and social goals seem particularly evident in times of economic austerity. However, social scientists occasionally identify policies which they claim would have clear benefits, both on the economic and social side. Pre-primary education and care (PSEC) is one such policy area.

A new study that I conducted with Professor Andy Green showed clearly that PSEC opens the doors of employment for women. Affordable and accessible pre-school provision frees up mothers of young children to undertake paid work and is thus likely to increase the employment rates of women in general. Raising rates of employment makes an important contribution to raising GDP per capita and improving living standards. At the same time participation in PSEC is held to improve the cognitive abilities of young children. These gains would come at little net costs since they are off-set by the increases in productivity and in tax revenues which will accrue.

We used two datasets: The first is a macro dataset that covers Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK, and the USA from 1980 to 2008. We included a large number of determinants of employment. These determinants are: PSEC, expenditure on unemployment (welfare), rigidity of employment, union coverage, coordinated wage bargaining, unemployment benefits’ duration and replacement rate, the rate of house ownership, and prison population. We also included the following variables: The degree of centralization of wage coordination (plant, firm, industry, or economy level), an index of employment protection, migrant stock, the ratio of minimum to average wage, taxes on labour, and union density. These variables did not have a significant effect on total or female employment and were taken out of the equation. The second is a micro-dataset: the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA 2009). Using this data we assessed the impact of attending preschool education on the achievements of 15 year-olds in Mathematics in the same countries mentioned above.

The findings are interesting. An increase in PSEC of 10% (making pre-primary education affordable and accessible) increases female employment by 6.1%. This result is substantial and intuitive since women are the major benefiters of PSEC. For the rest of the variables the impact on female employment is as follows. Expenditure on employment (welfare), rigidity of employment, and union coverage have a negative and significant effect on it, while the impact of coordinated wage bargaining, house ownership, and prison population is positive and significant. By contrast, unemployment benefits’ duration and replacement rate have an insignificant effect.

It is also worth noting that prison population accounts for a large difference in employment rates between the US and the rest of the countries. This happens because inmates are not considered as unemployed and as a consequence are taken out of the statistics. This artificially inflates employment rates in the US. Anecdotally, the prison population of the US is of 743 inmates per 100,000 inhabitants in 2008, and in Sweden it is of 78 inmates. This corresponds to 12.6% difference in total employment rates in favour of the US. Such a higher level of employment is artificial and does not result in higher productivity and it has high social and economic costs related to the need to operate prisons and to incarcerate so many people.

When comparing the social democratic economies with the liberal ones, it is possible to see that they attain high levels of employment through different roads. In the liberal economies flexibility is paramount while in social democratic economies publicly provided PSEC and coordinated wage bargaining play an important role.

On the other hand, using the PISA 2009 dataset, we were able to prove that attending PSEC is positively and significantly related to performance scores on reading at the age of 15 for all social groups. Hence, the cross-national analysis does not support the argument that raising levels of PSEC participation necessarily reduces social gaps in attainment at 15 years of age. Participation in PSEC increases educational performance by similar amounts for children of all social groups in most countries. Social gaps in performance at 15 may only be mitigated by high levels of PSEC provision where children from less advantaged families get more – or better quality – provision.

The important implication of this for policy is that for PSEC to reduce social gaps in school attainment it is not sufficient merely to increase aggregate PSEC participation rates. It would require policies with a substantial bias towards children from disadvantaged families so that they receive more – or better quality – PSEC than children from other social groups. Policy in England seems to be moving in this direction. On Sept 19th 2011 the Department for Education set out plans to extend the existing free entitlement of PSEC to 15 hours per week, which currently applies to all three and four year olds, and to all disadvantaged two year olds (i.e. for those qualifying for free school means or in local authority care). This should increase PSEC participation rates for disadvantaged families. DFE estimates that approximately 140000 two year olds would be eligible to benefit. However, it remains to be seen whether this will bias participation towards this group sufficiently to reduce inequalities in learning outcomes.

This study also appeared on Montrose42’s blog, on Nursery World, and on the page of the Centre for Longitudinal Studies at the IOE.